[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301243
SWODY1
SPC AC 301242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. ALONG 114W.  LAST IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
MINOR SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BE OVER NRN UT THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
LIFTING NEWD TODAY.  MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THIS HAPPENS TROUGH
WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS ERN U.S. RIDGE HOLD ITS POSITION OVER
THE ERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS BECOME A STATE OF DISARRAY THANKS
TO THE NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM
WI THROUGH IA/MO INTO KS...OK AND WEST TEXAS.  WHAT IS LEFT OF A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN UPPER MI SWWD INTO SERN MN
BEFORE THE PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA INTO NERN
KS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TX.

...PARTS OF ERN WI SWWD INTO ERN KS...

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AND ITS REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PLAINS EWD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS REMAIN POTENTIALLY
VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 J/KG. THUS...AS
DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AIR MASS AND NEAR AREAS CLOSE
TO THE OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES.  SOME LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KS...

DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND WRN U.S. TROUGHING...SURFACE
WINDS ARE SELY FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING AIDING IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW THAT HAS LEAD TO
CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN CO AND WRN KS.  AGAIN THE BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL PLAY ROLE IN INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET COUPLES WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER.  SLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KT WILL EXTEND THRU THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING WAA/LIFT NEAR THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE
E-W ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  IN ADDITION...NAM MODELS
DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD TONIGHT AHEAD OF
RELAXING WRN U.S. TROUGH.  CONTINUED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF MCS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/SWRN KS INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE PROFILES AND
LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SOME OF THE DEVELOPING
STORMS...CLUSTERING INTO THE MCS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BECOMING HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

SECOND IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES HAS TURNED ANTICYCLONICALLY
AROUND RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS
BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF UPSTATE NY
OVERNIGHT.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POISED OVER SERN ONTARIO/SWRN
QUEBEC AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH NERN NY STATE INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...

06Z RUN OF THE NAM DEPICTED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OF E TO W
MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
TOWARDS AREAS FROM TPA SWD THRU FMY AND SRQ THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
THAT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AREA...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/30/2006