[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290616
SWODY1
SPC AC 290614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

CORRECTED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SSWWD FROM CNTRL MN TO CNTRL KS
WITH DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. AS SFC
TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY...A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
UNCAPPED AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FIRST IN MN WHERE
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
PLAINS UPPER-TROUGH. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SWD FROM CNTRL IA
ACROSS ERN NEB...NW MO INTO KS AND POSSIBLY NW OK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOW
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MN AND NRN IA
SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY AND MAY BECOME ENHANCED AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES
AND CELLS MERGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY BY EARLY EVENING AS A LINE OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL MOVES EWD INTO WRN WI.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000
J/KG FORECAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE VERY LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY
WITH STORMS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO LOCALLY STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AND MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC....
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE AND MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND SPREAD SEWD ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
THE 30-35 KT RANGE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AREAS
OF LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2006