[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 270106
SWODY1
SPC AC 270105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN
VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS AND VA...

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NCNTRL US WITH SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE WRN
EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM SRN NEB
EXTENDING NWD INTO THE WCNTRL DAKOTAS. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD
INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND DUE TO
THE WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET LATE
THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS CLUSTERS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH ONE MCS LIKELY NEAR A LOW-LEVEL JET MAX IN ND
AND ANOTHER LIKELY IN THE NOSE OF A SECONDARY LOW-LEVEL JET MAX IN
CNTRL AND ERN NEB.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING SHOW
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE DUE TO STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SUPERCELLS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB ON THE NOSE OF A 45
KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO MAKE LARGE HAIL
LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY
ALSO INCREASE AS CELLS MERGE AND MCS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

...MID MS AND TN VALLEYS/SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUSTAINED LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE IN THE ERN CAROLINAS AS A 40-45 LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS LATE
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ACROSS
THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006