[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261944
SWODY1
SPC AC 261943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS...

...ERN STATES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW ROTATING EWD INTO THE UPPER
OH VLY THIS AFTN.  MODEST H5 JET WRAPPING EWD BENEATH THE LOW WAS
ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.  STRONG-SEVERE
TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE SEA-BREEZE AND LEE-TROUGH FROM SCNTRL
VA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...ENHANCED BY THE LARGE SCALE LIFT. 
STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIRTY-40 KTS OF MEAN FLOW
IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN VA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR BENEATH MINUS 12 DEGREE C
H5 TEMPERATURES ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR SCT
TSTMS FROM THE KY COALFIELDS NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY.  SOME OF
THESE TSTMS MAY ADVANCE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND/OR DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS IN VA/MD THROUGH THE AFTN.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
LARGELY DIURNAL AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

FARTHER N...CLOUDS AND PCPN HAVE UNDERMINED STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN THROUGHOUT CNTRL/ERN PA NEWD INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH POOR MID-TROP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.

...NRN PLAINS...
SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING ACROSS CNTRL WY AT 19Z WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKING TO A MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN NERN WY
AND SCNTRL MT. THIS LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY SHOULD ADVECT 50S SFC DEW
POINTS SWWD AND BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING MOUNTAIN TSTMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP NEWD ALONG/N OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO PARTS OF ND OVERNIGHT...ALONG SERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH.  FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS EVOLVING INTO LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX ROTATING NEWD THROUGH NCNTRL NM
AND SCNTRL CO THIS AFTN.  THIS HAS LIKELY ENHANCED THE DIURNAL
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE CO/WY FRONT RANGE...MAINTAINING MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MSTR TO THE MOUNTAINS.  HEATING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF MOUNTAIN TSTMS
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY EARLY IN THE TSTM
LIFE-CYCLES WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  EVOLUTION
INTO AN MCS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT FROM NERN CO/SERN WY ACROSS NEB AND
SRN SD.  HERE...THE LLJ AXIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPINGE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTED WARM FRONT...MAXIMIZING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. 
LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS OWING TO THE STEEP
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL MSTR WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE TX HIGH PLAINS ON
SATL IMAGERY.  GIVEN VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH...CINH SHOULD
ERODE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WITHIN THE MID-CLOUD
LATER THIS AFTN.  VERTICAL SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE MICROBURSTS.
 COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
WEAK SEABREEZE WAS THE FOCUS FOR TSTM INITIATION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL
EARLY THIS AFTN.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PEAK HEATING... LOCALIZED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPETUS FOR NEW UPDRAFTS.  MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN.

..RACY.. 05/26/2006