[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261631
SWODY1
SPC AC 261630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN AR...ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO CAROLINAS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD INTO NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH BAND OF 40-50 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BENEATH UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY.  HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VA AND MUCH OF NC.  THIS
AREA IS LIKELY TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND 1000-2000
J/KG OVER VA/NC.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THIS AREA...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE MITIGATED BY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE
FLOW.

...AR/TN/MS/AL/GA...
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTEND FROM
STORMS OVER KS...ACROSS PARTS OF AR/TN INTO MS/AL/GA.  BOUNDARIES
ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
AMPLE MOISTURE AND MODERATELY/VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGEST A
THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO WESTERN PARTS OF AREA AFTER 00Z...LIKELY
DIMINISHING THREAT.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT FROM
KS INTO ND TODAY.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WEST EDGE
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WY.  ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS/NEB/KS THROUGH THE EVENING. 
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  STRONGER LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEB
AND NORTHERN KS...WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR.

...EASTERN MT...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN WY INTO
ND THIS EVENING.  NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
AND FULL SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED EVENING STORMS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

...OH/PA/WV...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. 
HAIL MAY OCCUR IN STRONGER CELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THIS
EVENING.

...SOUTH FL...
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT TODAY OVER
SOUTH FL...BENEATH BRANCH OF STRONGER WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
 CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS REGION. 
HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS AREA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN NM.  THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG WEST EDGE OF STRONGER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER WEST TX.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 05/26/2006