[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241252
SWODY1
SPC AC 241251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VLY SW INTO ERN
PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NE SD UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY THIS
PERIOD AS DEEP E PACIFIC LOW EDGES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WA CST.  THE SD
LOW SHOULD...HOWEVER...TURN SLIGHTLY S OF E WITH TIME AS /1/ SYSTEM
HAS PASSED HI PLNS RIDGE AXIS AND /2/ WNWLY JET STREAK NOW OVER THE
NEB PANHANDLE WILL DRIVE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPR DIVERGENCE
 ESEWD.

AT LWR LEVELS...PACIFIC OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT ARCING S AND SW FROM
DAKS/MN SURFACE LOW SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY SE INTO THE MID MS VLY
TODAY/TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE SRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EDGE
ONLY SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS WRN MO/KS...AND LIKELY WILL DEVOLVE INTO A
WINDSHIFT LINE AS A NEW THERMAL SURGE DEVELOPS FARTHER N IN RESPONSE
TO NEB JET STREAK.  ELSEWHERE...WEAK N/S WARM FRONT NOW IN CNTRL/ERN
MO SHOULD MOVE E/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING CNTRL OH BY 12Z
THURSDAY.

...ERN IA/SW WI/NW IL...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING'S SQUALL LINE SHOULD
CLEAR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS WRN WI/EXTREME SE MN/ERN IA AND NW IL
LATER THIS MORNING.  GIVEN CURRENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION...AND 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS WRN MO/IA...SETUP SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPE TO 2000 J
PER KG/ NEWD INTO MDT RISK AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT.

CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF
50+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK...SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON OVER WRN WI.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
THEN DEVELOP S ALONG FRONT INTO ERN IA/NW IL.  LINEAR
FORCING...MODERATE TO STRONG MEAN FLOW AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS
SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL...SIMILAR TO THOSE IN CNTRL NEB
YESTERDAY...FAIRLY  QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE
PRODUCING A CORRIDOR OF HIGH WIND/HAIL.  BEFORE MERGING...
INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN
EXPECTED DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MOISTURE /AVERAGE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S/.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE REMAINDER OF WI AND NRN
IL EARLY TONIGHT.  THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY GIVEN
WEAKER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

...CNTRL/SRN IL WSW INTO CNTRL/SRN MO AND PARTS OF AR/OK...
SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT/WINDSHIFT LINE
SHOULD RESULT IN A SEPARATE AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED STORMS OVER
PARTS OF MO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG ROUGHLY THE I-70 AND I-44
CORRIDORS FROM NEAR STL TO COU/SGF.  SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE /UP TO 3000
J PER KG/ SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THIS REGION BENEATH 35-40 KT WLY MID
LEVEL FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF NEB JET.  HIGH LEVEL
WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /AOB 30
KTS/ AND ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO INITIATING BOUNDARY.

STORMS/POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH
WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THEIR EARLY STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT.  BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ONE
OR MORE ELONGATED CLUSTERS THAT...WHILE CONTAINING REMNANT EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD POSE A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR HIGH-END SEVERE.
 THE CLUSTERS COULD EXHIBIT BOTH BACKBUILDING/ REGENERATIVE
TENDENCIES SWWD INTO AR/OK...AND FORWARD PROPAGATING SEGMENTS EWD
INTO IL/IND LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/24/2006