[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 230101
SWODY1
SPC AC 230059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT TO
NERN NM...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST...

...HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT TO NERN NM...
STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD REACHING THE
CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO TO ERN WY/SERN MT BY 12Z
TUESDAY.  ASCENT SPREADING NEWD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM NERN NM/CO/SRN WY AND NNEWD INTO REST OF WY/WRN
NEB/WRN DAKOTAS/ERN MT.  DESPITE SOME WEAKENING OF
INSTABILITY...INCREASING EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO 50-60 KT
SWLY MID LEVEL JET MOVING INTO CO/WRN NEB AND STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ
TO 40-50 KT ALONG WRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION/
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT.  LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS/DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

...INTERIOR NW...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NRN CA/NWRN NV TO OFFSHORE OF ORE.  THIS IMPULSE IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING NE THEN MORE NWD AROUND THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED 650 MILES WEST OF THE 
ORE/WA COAST LINE.  ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID
IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
NW.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SLY SHEAR PROFILES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WITH BOTH
BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EVENING.  A DECREASING
TREND IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE AIR
MASS STABILIZES THROUGH DIABATIC COOLING AND IS CONVECTIVELY
OVERTURNED BY ONGOING ACTIVITY.

...ERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...
WEAK MCV LOCATED OVER SERN KS/SWRN MO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. 
WEAK ASCENT ALONG ERN-NRN PERIPHERIES OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NWRN
AR/SWRN MO AND EAST CENTRAL KS MAY SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG/
POTENTIALLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  THUS...HAVE REDUCED
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION.

...NRN PARTS OF MS/AL TO SRN SC...
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION
LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE
THREAT.

..PETERS.. 05/23/2006