[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 222101
SWODY1
SPC AC 222059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLATEAU
REGION....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM
SERN MT INTO NRN NM....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN KS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND GA....

...SYNOPSIS...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD
OVER WRN/SCENTRAL NV ACCORDING TO LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP.
 WIDESPREAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN WY SEWD/SWD THRU
WRN CO INTO CENTRAL NM AS INDICATED ON LATEST LIGHTNING NETWORK. 
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EWD/NEWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND SERN KS...

MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MCV JUST E OF ICT IS MOVING SLOWLY
 EWD WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT NEAR THE MCV.  AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE N-NE-E OF THE MCV WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG.  ALSO...CIRRUS CANOPY FROM CURRENT CONVECTION HAS
RETARDED FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ESE AND S WHERE CAPPING INVERSION
REMAINS.  THUS...LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE FROM S CENTRAL INTO SERN KS...POSSIBLY INTO THE
EXTREME WRN COUNTIES OF SWRN MO.  ALSO ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NWD BETWEEN HUT AND SLN...AND JUST S OF
THE KS/OK BORDER FROM PNC TO NEAR GMJ.

...SERN MT SWD INTO E CENTRAL NM...

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES WITH 700-500 MB
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 ACROSS WRN CO INTO CENTRAL NM.  IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 TO 9C/KM ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING THE THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF CO.

...PARTS OF NRN PLATEAU REGION...

LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THIS
REGION.  ONCE AGAIN...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8C/KM WOULD SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.

...PARTS OF SC/E CENTRAL GA...

REMNANTS OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-W ACROSS EXTREME SRN
SC THROUGH CENTRAL GA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/22/2006