[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221628
SWODY1
SPC AC 221626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES
EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN KS AND THE OZARK
PLATEAU...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS
ACROSS SC...

...ALONG/JUST WEST OF ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...
DEEP...NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITH STRONGEST ENERGY NOW
APPROACHING THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN U.S. TODAY.  DEEP SLY FLOW AND
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE PAC NW WHICH WILL LIMIT
HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER THESE REGIONS.  APPEARS JUST EAST OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD...INTO THE SRN ROCKIES AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...HEATING WILL ALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO DEVELOP UNDER MOISTENING MID LEVELS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80F
OVER WRN CO...WITH FURTHER HEATING THROUGH THE DAY. 
THUS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS EWD INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SELY WINDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAVE
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TODAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS FROM SERN MT INTO ERN NM.  IN ADDITION...PRESSURE FALLS
AND SSWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS FAR SOUTH
AS ERN NM.  THUS...INCREASING MLCAPE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING EWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHEAR ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH TORNADO
POTENTIAL INCREASING INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE BY THE EARLY
EVENING WHERE RUC DEVELOPS 40 KT SSELY LLJ BY 00Z.  ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES
THIS EVENING.  OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS AND SMALL
MCSS APPEARS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY INTO WRN KS/WRN
NEB ALONG NOSE OF STRONGER SLY LLJ.

...FAR ERN ORE/ERN WA INTO WRN MT...
THIN CLOUDS WITH SOME BREAKS ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF WRN ID
INTO FAR NERN ORE THIS MORNING.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER
THIS REGION UNDER 45 KT SLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND MID LEVELS WILL COOL
UNDER -16C H5 THERMAL TROUGH.  THUS...EVEN MODEST HEATING WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
ACROSS NRN ID INTO WRN MT TODAY.

...SERN KS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU...
REFERENCE SWOMCD 932 FOR SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS REGION.  MUCH
STRONGER HEATING/INSTABILITY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF
SLOW MOVING MCV NOW OVER S-CENTRAL KS. EXPECT WEAKLY SHEARED
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE AND REMAIN
FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MCV AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SERN
KS INTO SWRN MO.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY.

...TN INTO SC...
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION AND SHOULD FOCUS
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS CAP WEAKENS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
A COUPLE DAYS NOW.  HOWEVER...APPEARS WEAKER SHEAR WILL LIMIT
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE MID SOUTH AND TN RIVER
VALLEY.  SHEAR REMAINS STRONGER ALONG PORTION OF THE FRONT
PERSISTING ACROSS SC...WHERE ERODING CLOUDS ARE NOW SUPPORTING
ROBUST HEATING ONCE AGAIN.  OVERALL THREAT MAY BE LESS THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL FAVOR A FEW ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/22/2006