[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 200108
SWODY1
SPC AC 200107

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN ORE...SERN WA...NRN
ID...EXTREME WRN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MO/SRN IL TO NRN AL/SWRN
TN...

...SYNOPSIS...
STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONTINUANCE OF WRN MEAN RIDGE
AND ERN TROUGH.  AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM NRN MB TO
NWRN ONT...UPPER LOW NOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EJECT NNEWD OVER ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY OF QUE.  SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS
LOWER MO VALLEY REGION TOWARD TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS WILL
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW...ALONG NW-SE ALIGNED AND
QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE.  MEANWHILE....DEEP-LAYER SSWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...WITH WEAK/EMBEDDED
PERTURBATIONS MOVING INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION.

...NWRN CONUS...
SERN WA MCS WILL REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SVR POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES
NEWD WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
SVR WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL REMAINS EWD TOWARD ID/MT BORDER REGION.  REF
WW 364 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM THREATS.  GEG
SOUNDING REMAINS MISSING BECAUSE OF RAOB EQUIPMENT
UPGRADES...HOWEVER MODIFIED BOI RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POCKETS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPES WILL SUPPORT ACTIVITY AMIDST
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APCHG 9 DEG C/KM...WITH 40S-50S F SFC DEW
POINTS.  SVR RISK IS STRONGLY TIED TO PRESENCE OF DEEPLY
HEATED/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN INFLOW REGION OF TSTMS...AS WELL
AS LIFT GENERATED ALONG LEADING EDGES OF COLD POOLS FROM MCS...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET WHEN DIABATIC SFC COOLING WILL
BE STRONGEST.

...LOWER MO VALLEY...OZARKS TO TN VALLEY REGION...
CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT OF SVR TSTMS INVOF SFC
LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE OVER ERN MO FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...SUPPORTED
BY FRONTAL LIFT...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...200-300 J/KG OF 0-3 KM
SRH ALONG FRONT...AND MLCAPES APPROXIMATELY 1500 J/KG. SPECIFIC
MORPHOLOGY AND TRACK OF ANY OVERNIGHT MCS WILL DEPEND ON RELATIVE
INFLUENCE OF ANY SFC-FORCED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
VERSUS MORE ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...FARTHER SE ACROSS
SERN MO/WRN KY/WRN TN REGION WHERE 30-40 KT WLY LLJ IS PROGGED. 
MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL AND CLOSE TO
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE IN SFC-850 MB
LAYER. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS SUGGEST HAIL THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/20/2006