[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191958
SWODY1
SPC AC 191957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...

...MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD BELT OF NWLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS. AT THE SFC..A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT
EXISTS FROM ERN MO EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN TN AND WRN AL. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NWRN AR ACROSS SCNTRL
MO. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY CAPPED...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INITIATE IN WRN KY AND WRN TN. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
GENERALLY CONSISTENT...DEVELOPING AN MCS IN SERN MO AND MOVING THE
MCS SEWD ACROSS WRN KY AND TN THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOW
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS OVER SERN
MO WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS
MO AND AR...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. AS THE MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES SEWD INTO WRN KY AND WRN TN...A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL
CLUSTERS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE MCS
TRACKS SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM WRN ID
EXTENDING NWD INTO NRN ORE. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOWN ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS IN ERN ORE...WRN ID AND SERN WA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SUGGEST HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

...NEW ENGLAND STATES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LOW OVER
SERN NY ATTM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER-LOW. COLD AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2006