[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161602
SWODY1
SPC AC 161601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN FL...

...SRN FL...
LARGE TROUGH IN E AND RIDGE IN THE W WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
WESTERLIES ACROSS FL PENINSULA.  COLD FRONTAL ZONE CENTRAL FL IS
MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY SWD.  SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION CONTINUING EXTREME S FL SWD TO WRN CUBA
AHEAD OF A WEAK S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
 S FL TO S OF COLD FRONT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ERN PORTION
OF S FL WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATEST. 
MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 2000 J/KG SE COASTAL AREA WHICH COUPLED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONALLY DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTICELL
STORMS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

...MS/TN VALLEY REGION...
S/WV IMPULSE ROTATING SWD THRU LOWER MO VALLEY AROUND ERN U.S.
TROUGH WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  HEATING
AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS TN
VALLEY AREA WWD TO MS VALLEY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THRU THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...HOWEVER THE RELATIVE WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT
SEVERE THREAT TO A FEW HAIL EVENTS.

..HALES/CARBIN.. 05/16/2006