[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160041
SWODY1
SPC AC 160039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM FAR SERN VA INTO
SERN GA/NRN FL...

...ERN NC TO ERN GA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD
THROUGH MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH BASE INTO THE SERN STATES THIS
EVENING.  DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK HAS MAINTAINED A SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL NC...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. 
AS A RESULT...COLD FRONT HAS EFFECTIVELY STALLED ACROSS S-CNTRL
NC/N-CNTRL SC...WITH SOME EWD MOVEMENT NOTED FARTHER TO THE S OVER
ERN GA.

DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY OBSERVED ON THE 16/00Z MHX/CHS
SOUNDINGS / I.E. SBCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG / AND THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND INCREASED DYNAMIC
FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NERN SC INTO FAR SERN VA.  WHILE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

FARTHER S...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NRN FL...AS WELL AS WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING ONTO THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO.

...SWRN NM...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL INTO SWRN NM...PERHAPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SHIFTING SEWD FROM THE 4-CORNERS
REGION.  16/00Z ELP SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WERE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG.  GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING.

..MEAD.. 05/16/2006