[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151630
SWODY1
SPC AC 151628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF FL PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...FL/SERN GA...
WITH UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING EWD THRU OH VALLEY...MDT/STG WESTERLIES
REMAIN SERN U.S.  FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM ERN NC SWWD THRU SRN GA
TO OFFSHORE MOBILE BAY.  WITH STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...AIR MASS S OF FRONT IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. 
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE S FL WHERE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F COUPLED
WITH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90F RESULT IN MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG.  WITH
30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPICAL ACROSS FL THIS
AFTERNOON...STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.  WLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD E COAST SEA BREEZE TO JUST
INLAND WHICH WILL FOCUS BEST AREA OF STORM INITIATION BY MID
AFTERNOON ERN FL PENINSULA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM...HOWEVER ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE LOCALLY SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IS ENHANCED ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/MOVE OFFSHORE BY 00Z ENDING SEVERE THREAT.


...NC COAST...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COASTAL COUNTIES
THRU THE AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 70KT MID LEVEL
JET ROTATES ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION
OF STRONGEST STORMS.  AGAIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
COOL AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE UPGRADED
THIS AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK.

...ERN AZ/WRN NM...
SURFACE RIDGE PLAIN STATES WILL MAINTAIN ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WRN NM
INTO ERN AZ.  MOISTURE ACCORDINGLY HAS SPREAD AS FAR W AS MOGOLLON
RIM SWD IN AZ. THE STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE
ACROSS AZ COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RELATIVELY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN AZ/WRN NM. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY AS THEY PROPAGATE INTO ADJACENT DESERTS
VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 05/15/2006