[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150515
SWODY1
SPC AC 150513

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING IN THE E AND RIDGING IN THE W. 
MORE SPECIFICALLY...UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM NOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ROTATES THROUGH MEAN TROUGH BASE
AND THEN NEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL PIVOT SWWD AND THEN
SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.  IN THE W...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG THE
PACIFIC NW COAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA SWD ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN AND THEN MORE SWWD ACROSS NRN FL.  THIS FRONT MAY REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OR WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT EWD AND SEWD THROUGH THE
DAY...PRIOR TO ACCELERATING TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AROUND UPPER LOW.

...SRN GA/FL...

CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT COUPLED WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN
FL AND SRN GA. RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. 
HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME
SEVERE HAIL.

THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG ERN FL
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCED BY THE AMBIENT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  IN ADDITION TO
ISOLATED HIGH WINDS/HAIL...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

...ERN AZ/WRN NM...

OROGRAPHIC FORCING COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG WRN
EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...STRONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...PACIFIC NW...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE
SHIFTING NNEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.  HOWEVER...NAM
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE FORECASTS ARE TOO HIGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN
EXCESSIVE INSTABILITY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006