[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150058
SWODY1
SPC AC 150056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM ERN VA/SRN
CHESAPEAKE BAY SWD TO SRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN
NM SEWD TO S TX...

...ERN VA TO SRN GA...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL NC WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TOWARD THE DELMARVA
OVERNIGHT.  TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SERN U.S. EXCEPT FL.

REGIONAL VWPS AND 15/00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING OWING TO COUPLING OF WSWLY 60-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND
30-40 KT SWLY LLJ.  SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
/SOME OF WHICH EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ ARE ONGOING FROM
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL/ERN NC SWD INTO ERN SC AND
SRN GA.  OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG...HOWEVER THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

...S TX...

SURFACE AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST...HOT AND
STRONGLY UNSTABLE / MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG / AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF MCS PROPAGATING SWD THROUGH THE REGION.  PRESENCE OF STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RESULTANT 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE...DAMAGING
HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER
ORGANIZATION OF MCS COLD POOL WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

...ERN NM INTO FAR WRN AND SWRN TX...

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL INTO S-CNTRL NM AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH ERN AZ. 
15/00Z ELP SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500 J/KG. 
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
MODESTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /35-45 KTS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME SEVERE HAIL AND MORE SO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ONGOING STORMS OVER S-CNTRL NM MAY ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL
TONIGHT...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SWD INTO FAR WRN
TX.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX.

..MEAD.. 05/15/2006