[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 142006
SWODY1
SPC AC 142004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SC/NC/VA WILL REMAIN WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRONG /70-80 KT/ MID
LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF LARGE UPPER CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.  STRONG FORCING AND KINEMATICS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS CAROLINAS/ MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS VICINITY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN
NRN/NERN NC AND SERN VA WILL BE MAINTAINED GIVEN AREA OF PRESSURE
FALLS LOCATED EAST OF WRN NC SURFACE LOW AND SUPPORT GREATEST THREAT
FOR TORNADOES. THIS TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
ALONG TRACK OF SURFACE LOW THROUGH MUCH OF NC AND POTENTIALLY SRN
VA.

...TX TO GULF COAST STATES...
SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING WITHIN CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.  VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS /MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG/ LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING WEAKENS INHIBITION AHEAD OF SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  NEW STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WWD
AS WELL INTO SW TX AS HEATING WEAKENS CINH FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/
STEEP LAPSE RATES.  VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER DEEP S TX IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL WELL AFTER DARK AS ONGOING
ACTIVITY MOVES SWD LATER IN PERIOD.

FARTHER E ACROSS LA TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AIR MASS ACROSS
MUCH OF LA HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS...BUT AREAS OF SURFACE
HEATING EWD ALONG GULF COAST REGION INTO SRN GA/NW FL EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL GA SWWD THROUGH SRN AL/MS WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SRN GA TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA WILL PROMOTE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG/S OF SWD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WITH HAIL/
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. 

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DESPITE RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NRN NM...FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESE OVER FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/SURFACE HEATING PROMOTING TSTMS. 
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN NM MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
INTO THE EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE.

GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED FARTHER S ACROSS SERN NM/SW TX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 05/14/2006