[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141612
SWODY1
SPC AC 141610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE GULF STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER COLD LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY THRU TONIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX NOW ACROSS TN VALLEY CONTINUES
ROTATING EWD TO ACROSS CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING. SLOWLY DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FAR WRN VA WILL MOVE EWD VICINITY VA/NC BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH THE PRONOUNCED EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG
MID LEVEL JET.

COLD FRONT TRAILS WSWWD ACROSS NRN GA TO SRN AR AND THEN INTO FAR
SWRN TX.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WIND MAX.  AS THE
SURFACE LOW WRN VA MOVES EWD...LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SERN VA INTO
NERN NC WILL BACK AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT GIVEN COOL...STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR MLCAPES
RISING TO  1000 J/KG WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN HEAT INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S.  WHILE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FREEZING LEVELS...THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
FORMATION.  MOST FAVORABLE SUPERCELL AREA ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW UNDER
APPROACHING STRONG MID LEVEL JET. STORMS ALSO COULD EVOLVE INTO
SHORT LINES/BOWS UNDER THE STRONG UPPER JET FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
WIND THREAT.

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX TO S
OF FRONTAL ZONE. ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS THE STORMS
CONTINUE DEVELOPING S/SEWD THRU MUCH OF TX BY LATER TONIGHT.

GIVEN MLCAPES RISING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND 40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL.  LARGEST HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.

SEVERE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
S TX AND LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER DARK.

FURTHER E ALONG GULF COAST...WHILE LAPSE RATES FAVOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THE
AFOREMENTION AREAS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL THUS WOULD BE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED WITH LARGE HAIL THE DOMINANT THREAT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE FLOW HAS SPREAD WWD INTO ERN NM AND W OF PECOS VALLEY IN FAR
SWRN TX ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE PERSIST THIS REGION. STRONG HEATING COUPLED
WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN NM/SWRN TX. IN THE
NWLY FLOW...STORMS WOULD THEN DEVELOP S/SEWD THRU THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DOWNBURSTS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.

..HALES/GRAM.. 05/14/2006