[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140557
SWODY1
SPC AC 140555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NM THROUGH CNTRL AND
SRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS VA THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN
CAROLINAS...SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. A STRONG
MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SERN U.S. AND CAROLINAS. AS THIS OCCURS THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE TN VALLEY WWD THROUGH NRN TX WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD DURING THE DAY.

...SERN NM THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN TX...

LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL PERSIST OVER S
CNTRL THROUGH S TX IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000
J/KG. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF CNTRL TX.
ACTIVITY SHOULD REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN
ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG SWD ADVANCING FRONT. ENELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM WHERE
SURFACE HEATING AND EVOLVING UPSLOPE REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT
INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED
IN THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...VA THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE...

FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL
SPREAD EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO VA.
HOWEVER...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH -18 TO -20 AT 500 MB WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHERE SURFACE HEATING
DEVELOPS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO
1000 J/KG. FARTHER S OVER S GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST...BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES S OF UPPER JET. STORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH JET EXIT REGION
FROM ERN GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO VA. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SWWD INTO SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

..DIAL/CROSBY.. 05/14/2006