[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131628
SWODY1
SPC AC 131627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TX EWD ACROSS LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN WI DROPS SEWD INTO OH VALLEY STRONG WIND
MAX CURRENTLY VICINITY MKC WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY INTO TN
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.  COLD FRONT FROM SRN WI SURFACE LOW TRAILS
SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NERN OK AND THEN WWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE. FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD EXTENDING FROM TN/AR BORDER WSWWD TO VICINITY
NRN TX/OK BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN STATES AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH ALONG WITH THE STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IS
PROVIDING A SET UP FOR POTENTIALLY AN ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PERIOD.  THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
IS RETURNING NEWD FROM WRN GULF ACROSS TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY ATTM.


...GULF STATES...
STRONG HEATING WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO 80F OR ABOVE ACROSS
MUCH OF GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM COUPLED WITH 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THE INHIBITION WILL
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. 
THIS MORNINGS ELEVATED ACTIVITY SHOULD RESULT IN PROVIDING SURFACE
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN MS INTO
CENTRAL AL/GA. WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MLCAPES TO
1000 J/KG ARE ALL THAT ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER HAIL...SOME SEVERE...IS
LIKELY WITH MANY OF THE STORMS CONSIDERING THE COOL...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ENHANCE LOCAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN TX...
HAVE EXPANDED AND INCREASED THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OF LARGE HAIL...FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NRN TX EWD TO MS.  MODELS
APPEAR TO BE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE ONGOING
SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS TX.  NAM AND EVEN THE 12Z GFS RUNS
SEEMS TO EXCESSIVELY INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ACROSS NERN TX WITH FORECASTS OF NEAR 70F DEWPOINT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  OBSERVED MOISTURE SUGGEST POSSIBLE LOW/MID 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED WHICH COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WIND MAX ROTATES SEWD TOWARD WRN TN
VALLEY...STILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH MLCAPES LIKELY
BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LITTLE CIN AS
TEMPERATURES HEAT THRU THE 80S...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE...MOST
LIKELY BY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DROPPING SWD ACROSS SRN
AR INTO NRN TX.  SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS NRN TX EWD INTO MS.  TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY
EXPECTED HIGH LCLS AND WEAKER SHEAR IN AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS ERN TX AND WEAKER INSTABILITY FURTHER E WHERE THE SHEAR WILL
BE STRONGER.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AS
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS S/SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY 
AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AND
WIND MAX TO THE N.

WILL MONITOR THE MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SLIGHT RISK IF INSTABILITY CAN INCREASE TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN NOW
EXPECTED.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 05/13/2006