[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131231
SWODY1
SPC AC 131229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
REGION...

...AL/GA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND BASE OF LOW 
AND ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION.  ONE SUCH FEATURE IS
EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER MO/AR.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AL/MS/GA BY EVENING.  AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING OCCUR.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORNING STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING INTO WESTERN GA BEFORE WEAKENING. 
HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THROUGH MIDDAY.  MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL NEAR/AFTER SUNSET AS
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE NAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
EVENING.

...TX/LA/MS....
FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND THE ARKLATEX...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT.  STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL MS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK ALONG FRONT...SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 05/13/2006