[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121956
SWODY1
SPC AC 121954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2006

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DRY/STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A FEW REGIONS WILL...
HOWEVER...HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND/OR OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AND NRN ROCKIES.

...SW TX...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SW TX /25 NE MRF/...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING ADDITIONAL
CU/TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF SW TX.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SW TX...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH
LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

...NERN WA/FAR NRN ID INTO MT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALREADY
DEVELOPED MAINLY ACROSS SERN BC.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKS EWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/SWRN CANADA.  DESPITE MEAGER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS.

...ERN OK TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS TX WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. 
WAA...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD
ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ELEVATED TSTMS
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR/NRN MS.

..PETERS.. 05/12/2006