[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 100608
SWODY1
SPC AC 100607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN KY...WRN AND MIDDLE
TN...ERN AR...NERN LA...MUCH OF MS...AND NRN AND WRN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST STATES SWD
ACROSS THE OH/TN /MS VALLEYS TO THE GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KS/OK/TX AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS MO/AR THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY LARGER TROUGH DIGGING SWD
INTO THE PLAINS.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION -- WITHIN LARGE
TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ERN
WI SWD ACROSS IL...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS SERN MO/NWRN AR AND INTO NRN
AND WRN TX.  A LOW FORECAST ALONG THIS FRONT OVER NERN TX AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TO THE MID MS/LOWER
OH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN TN/NWRN MS/LA AND INTO THE TX COASTAL
REGION.  OVERNIGHT...THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE NWD
INTO NRN INDIANA/LOWER MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH COLD FRONT
ARCING SEWD ACROSS OH...SWD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND THEN
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST REGION...
VERY COMPLEX BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS
ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE RISK AREA COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO.  DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA -- I.E. ACROSS
THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION -- IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AS A RESULT
OF THE ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

FROM A LARGE-SCALE PERSPECTIVE...A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH --
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG /70 TO 90 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET STREAK -- WILL
SPREAD EWD ALONG WITH INTENSIFYING ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.  WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS FEATURING LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS N OF THE TN VALLEY
AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- THOUGH AGAIN...THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
FROM THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS NWD REMAINS IN QUESTION. 
NONETHELESS...STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD
SPREADING ACROSS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICIANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.  

AS FRONT MOVES EWD...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS.  NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR SWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS LA AND INTO ERN/SERN TX.  STRONG
WIND FIELD WILL YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL
STORMS...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.  FURTHER
N...ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY AS UPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT STRENGTHEN.  STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP NWD
ALONG FRONT ACROSS IL INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH LESS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A LESS
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.

GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK -- ...EXPECT VERY LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
MS AND INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WHICH CAN OCCUR NWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY...THREAT MAY EXTEND FURTHER N THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT...CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD
NOT EXTEND E OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...LIMITED THREAT MAY SPREAD
EWD ACROSS GA...AND POSSIBLY INTO SC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 05/10/2006