[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 100109
SWODY1
SPC AC 100107

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN OK...WRN AND INTO
CENTRAL AR...AND NERN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SRN PLAINS...
TWO SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING
ATTM...ONE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH AND THE OTHER OVER SERN OK AND NNEWD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR ALONG
COLD FRONT.

VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS SERN OK AND ADJACENT N
CENTRAL AND NERN TX/WRN AR...WHERE 4000 TO 5000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
IS INDICATED.  WITH 40 TO 45 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE
INCREASING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS -- AND ATTENDANT THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...AND WILL
SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS AR/NERN TX AND LIKELY INTO PARTS OF LA/MS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD -- ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

MEANWHILE...EXPECT STORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EWD INTO WRN OK/N TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THOUGH
STORMS ARE MAINLY N OF THE COLD FRONT...SUFFICIENT HEATING N OF
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN  SURFACE-BASED CAPE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. 
WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG/FAVORABLY-VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD...EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO CONTINUE AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE
STABLE AIR WITH EWD EXTENT.  

STORMS WILL LIKELY ROLL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS NRN AL AS THEY HAVE ENCOUNTERED
MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  HOWEVER...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE
OVER SERN MS/SRN AL WHERE MOIST/MODERATELY-UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS.  EVENING LIX /SLIDELL LA/ RAOB INDICATES DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WHICH COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL PERSIST/SPREAD SEWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
LIMITED/LINGERING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY STILL
PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

..GOSS.. 05/10/2006