[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 082111
SWODY1
SPC AC 082109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN FL WWD ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID POINTS PRODUCT

...GULF COAST...
STORMS WERE CONSOLIDATING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN
GA/NERN FL WWD ACROSS THE FL PNHDL. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY FORM
INVOF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM MOBILE AREA
WWD/NWWD INTO LA. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE WITH WWD EXTENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL STOUT UPDRAFTS. WHILE LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE GIVEN 50KT MID LEVEL FLOW. STRONG
CELLS/MULTICELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING...DIURNAL
WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A FEW HOUR AFTER SUNSET.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM ERN SD SWWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO
NWRN KS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DRYLINE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE COLD FRONT...FROM WRN KS TO
TX BIG BEND AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTS A NUMBER OF SHORT
WAVE FEATURES SPREADING ESEWD FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE IMPULSES SHOULD FURTHER AID STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AT PRESENT...WARM SECTOR OVER TX REMAINS CAPPED. HOWEVER...VERY
STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORM INITIATION ACROSS WRN/NWRN TX. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH NEAR THE COLD
FRONT.

AS THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPS EAST ACROSS KS/NEB AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...RESULTING LIFT WILL ACT ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. STORMS...IN CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS...WITH SOME
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS ERN NEB AND CNTRL AND
ERN KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER NEB...AND GREATER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER KS... MAY FOSTER GREATER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/STRETCHING WITH
AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING IN THESE AREAS.

CONVECTION SHOULD MERGE INTO AN MCS OR TWO FROM ERN KS INTO WRN IA
THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST WITH THE MCS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO
SERN KS/NERN OK AND WRN MO/AR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST ON THE NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW
LEVEL JET.

...MN...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN/NCNTRL MN. WHILE LOW STATIC
STABILITY AND MODEST FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION...MID LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/08/2006