[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080604
SWODY1
SPC AC 080602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN SSWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX EWD INTO THE GULF
COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MOVE
EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES/INTO
THE PLAINS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD LINGER W-E ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WRN
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD.

...MN SSWWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO OK...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE START OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AHEAD OF
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
COMMENCES.  BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
TO DEVELOP...WHEN FORCING ALONG FRONT/AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT SHEAR SHOULD
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS TO DEVELOP -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ERN NEB AND SWD INTO KS/OK.  EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BECOME THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING...MCS IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK WHICH SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO MO/AR BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...E TX/LA/SRN MS...
FORECAST FOR THIS REGION IS COMPLICATED BY QUESTIONS REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN KS/OK...AND
MCS PROGRESSING EWD OVER CENTRAL TX.  THOUGH DETAILS OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL ARE THERFORE UNCLEAR...IT APPEARS THAT FRONT NOW EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL GA WSWWD ACROSS SRN LA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM
FRONT...AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVOLVE...WHICH COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE UVV AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD YIELD INCREASINGLY ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION.

MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN SRN STREAM SHOULD YIELD SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.  MAIN SEVERE THREATS SHOULD
BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  DEPENDING UPON EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM...AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITY WITHIN
THE LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY BECOME APPARENT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE REMAIN MORE
LIMITED DUE TO SOMEWHAT WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKER LARGE-SCALE
UVV.

OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH LIMITED POTENTIAL MAY LINGER ALONG FRONT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 05/08/2006