[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080101
SWODY1
SPC AC 080059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN KS SWD ACROSS TX...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SWRN KS AND THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES...WHILE OTHER STORMS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
TRANSPECOS AND INTO THE TX BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 

EVENING MAF RAOB REVEALS FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS.  THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO -- SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...WHILE SPREADING EWD TOWARD CENTRAL TX AS LOW-LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  

THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE NWD INTO SWRN
KS...DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
PERSIST/INCREASE WHILE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
PARTS OF OK/N TX.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS...WITH STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  

...THE SOUTHEAST...
CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED OFF THE SC COAST...THOUGH NEW
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL GA NEAR INTERSECTION OF
WEDGE FRONT AND COLD FRONT...AND SWWD INTO SRN AL ALONG COLD FRONT. 

HOWEVER...DESPITE SUFFICIENT WIND FIELD...EVENING SOUNDINGS REVEAL
WEAK LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION TO REMAIN LIMITED AS WELL.  THOUGH A FEW
MARGINAL SEVERE REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...SLOW
STABILIZATION OF AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED DECREASE IN
THREAT...AND THUS WILL DROP THE SLIGHT RISK AND CARRY ONLY LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...NRN PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEB AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE PERSISTS. 
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF FRONT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS -- REMAINS WEAK.  THIS COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS THAT ANY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING.

..GOSS.. 05/08/2006