[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071934
SWODY1
SPC AC 071932

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE ERN FL PNHDL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SC SWWD INTO SRN GA/NRN FL...

MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SC AS OF 18Z WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF GA AND
AL INTO SERN MS.  A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG/...COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...HAS MAINTAINED STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER
CNTRL/SRN SC AND SWRN GA INTO THE FL PNHDL AND N-CNTRL FL.  REGIONAL
VWPS INDICATE LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL 45-55 KT VERTICAL SHEAR...THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY STRONGER NEAR SC SURFACE LOW.

EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL.  SOME
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SC COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN MORE STRONGLY
CURVED.

...SWRN TX...

WRN EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT HAS STARTED TO RETREAT NWD THROUGH
WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING THIS BOUNDARY FROM
FAR SERN NM SEWD TO NEAR SAT AS OF 18Z.  AIR MASS S OF FRONT REMAINS
RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS DEEPENING
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX /GLASS AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS/
ALONG WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS.  CONTINUED HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  SELY
SURFACE WINDS BENEATH 40-50 KTS AT 6 KM AND 90-100 KTS AT 9 KM AGL
/PER WHITE SANDS NM PROFILER/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.

THOUGH NOT AS LIKELY...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
ALSO OCCUR ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PERMIAN
BASIN INTO SERN NM...PERHAPS SEWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY WHERE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

...SWRN NEB INTO THE TX PNHDL...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH COUPLED WITH RATHER STEEP LOW
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR GLD.  DESPITE MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.  TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG LEE TROUGH OR WEAK DRY LINE
FROM SWRN NEB INTO THE TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUCUMCARI NM AND GRENADA CO PROFILERS BOTH INDICATE ROUGHLY 30-35 KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A NOTICEABLY STRONGER INCREASE AT HIGH-LEVELS
/100-110 KTS/ FARTHER S ACROSS NERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL.  MARGINAL
SHEAR ACROSS NRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL LARGELY SUPPORT
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 
HOWEVER...FARTHER S FROM SWRN KS INTO THE TX PNHDL...SUPERCELLS
APPEAR MORE LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.

...WRN AND CNTRL DAKOTAS...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE BLACK HILLS NEWD INTO CNTRL ND WITHIN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK...THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

..MEAD.. 05/07/2006