[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071632
SWODY1
SPC AC 071631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE AL TO
SRN SC....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM W TX TO CENTRAL NEB....

...SE STATES TODAY...
CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
FROM SE LA ACROSS SRN MS/AL INTO GA...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER NRN MS/AL.  SURFACE HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO INTENSIFY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE AL AND CENTRAL/S GA AND SRN SC. 
EXPECT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND MODEST
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT/.

...W TX TO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN ELONGATED
MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM NW NM/CO TO MT THAT IS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE
HIGH PLAINS.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FARTHER
S FROM WRN NEB ACROSS ERN CO TO ERN NM.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE MID 50S INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON E OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S W
OF THE MORNING STRATUS.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH...WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR FROM NEB SWD SUPPORTING A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS COMPARED TO THE DAKOTAS.  MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL WITH A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT BY LATE
EVENING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE S AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-35 KT LLJ MAY ALLOW A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SW OK/NW TX.

...SW TX THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA...THOUGH THIS
TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAIN W OF TX. 
STILL...L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 60-68/ IS SPREADING NWWD
ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE AND LOWER PECOS VALLEYS...AND THE 12Z
DRT/MAF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BECOME
WEAK ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW-MID 80S.  A FEW STORMS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX AND W/SW OF DRT...AND THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD THEN MOVE GENERALLY EWD.  THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS OVER THIS AREA...MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG IS STILL EXPECTED IN COMBINATION WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006