[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060100
SWODY1
SPC AC 060058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF W CNTRL
TEXAS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE SRN PLAINS....

NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
HAS AMPLIFIED IN RESPONSE TO EMBEDDED DIGGING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE...WHICH WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS 0CCURS...AND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST ON NOSE OF SEASONABLY STRONG
NORTHERN PACIFIC JET...SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO BREAK
DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE IS
ALREADY SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS QUICKLY ON ITS
HEELS...AND PROGGED EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WHILE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDS 
ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INHIBITION HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION SO FAR.  THE SAME GENERALLY APPLIES FOR THE DRY
LINE EAST OF THE BIG BEND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THE PRIMARY
FORCING FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ALONG  A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM...ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS IS JUST NORTH OF WHERE
STRONG HEATING OCCURRED EAST OF DRY LINE...CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED
LAYER CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IMMEDIATELY NEAR SURFACE FRONT...AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 IN A NARROW CORRIDOR TO THE
NORTH.

MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND A CONSOLIDATION INTO A
LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS UNDERWAY NEAR/WEST OF ABILENE. 
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
CONTINUING EVOLUTION OF A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.  HIGHEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ABILENE AREA THROUGH 02-03Z...BEFORE
THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH IN MORE STABLE OR STABILIZING LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ALONG FRONT FARTHER TO THE EAST...ACROSS AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF DALLAS.

INITIAL CLUSTER MAY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT IMPULSE...INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL NORTH/WEST OF THE SAN ANTONIO/HOUSTON AREAS RESPECTIVELY.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
CONVECTION HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS...SUPPORTED BY WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH.  HOWEVER...
INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ENVIRONMENT
STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..KERR.. 05/06/2006