[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051944
SWODY1
SPC AC 051943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
FAR SERN NM SEWD ACROSS THE TX PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
ERN NM EWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
ERN GA AND MUCH OF SC...

...ERN NM AND TX...

EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
SERN NM ESEWD INTO CNTRL TX INTO W-CNTRL LA WITH ATTENDANT DRY LINE
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR CNM SSEWD
INTO THE TX BIG BEND REGION.  WHILE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED N OF
THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE TX S PLAINS...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /REF. 18Z MAF
SOUNDING/ ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOW TSTMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN AND E-CNTRL
NM AS LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN ROCKIES
MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD WRN EXTENSION OF INSTABILITY AXIS. 
EXPECT THESE TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING EWD INTO THE TX PNHDL AND S PLAINS AS THIS FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD. THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...THOUGH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

MORE INTENSE SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON NEARER TO SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SERN NM INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN WHERE SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY.  WHILE LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE SUPERCELLS WHICH
CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH SYNOPTIC OR ANY SMALLER-SCALE BOUNDARIES
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. 

ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AND ALONG DRY
LINE OR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF SWRN TX.  SAME GENERAL
LARGE-SCALE REGIME WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. 

UPSCALE GROWTH OF ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS OVER WRN OR SWRN TX INTO
A MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND
HAIL SPREADING EWD INTO CNTRL TX.

...SRN LA...

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN LA
IN ADVANCE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL LA.
AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL.

...ERN GA INTO CNTRL/ERN NC...

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN ARC OF TSTMS FROM NEAR AHN
SWD INTO THE ERN FL PNHDL MOVING EWD AT 20-25 KTS.  FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NWRN GA
COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN THESE TSTMS EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GA INTO SC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...DATA NEAR MCV SUGGEST SOME LOCAL INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE
HAIL.

..MEAD.. 05/05/2006