[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300555
SWODY1
SPC AC 300554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...NRN OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...

...TX PANHANDLE/WEST TX/WRN OK/SE CO/WRN KS...
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
STRONGER FLOW. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS
SERN CO...THE NRN TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING ENEWD INTO SRN KS. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S F TO THE UPPER 60S F
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN CO...THE TX
PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. 

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BACK AND INCREASE
IN THE EARLY EVENING FROM THE WEST TX CAPROCK INTO SWRN OK AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT...MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERAL AGREEMENT DRIVING AN MCS
SEWD ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS AND ANOTHER MCS ESEWD ACROSS SWRN
KS.

...CNTRL PLAINS/NRN OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY...
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY SWD ACROSS ERN KS...THE NRN OZARKS AND SRN GREAT LAKES. SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT PULSE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. 

...WRN NY/WRN PA AND UPPER 0H VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT SHOULD BE IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN NY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE 60S F.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING STORMS WILL
REMAIN PULSE OR MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF
LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 05/30/2006