[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300100
SWODY1
SPC AC 300059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OS NERN IL AND FAR
NW IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN AND SCNTRL
MO...

...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ERN U.S. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PRESENT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM ERN MN EXTENDING
SSWWD INTO SERN NEB. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2500 J/KG. A LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NE MN AND
NWRN WI AND THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
AND INTO NRN/CNTRL WI LATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN THE SUPERCELL
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS IA AND SE NEB DUE TO
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT EXISTS FROM CNTRL KS SWWD INTO WEST TX. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD
INTO THE STRONG INSTABILITY LATE THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NRN OK TO
NRN KS SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORMS MERGE AND MCS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
LATE THIS EVENING.

...ERN MO/NERN IL...
SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN
ERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN NRN IL AND ERN MO. THE STORMS
COMPLEXES ARE LOCATED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXIST FROM ERN MO EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL IL AS SHOWN
ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS ERN MO
AND NERN IL FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 05/30/2006