[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 292122
SWODY1
SPC AC 292121

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD
INTO PARTS OF KS/OK/TX...

CORRECTED TO CHANGE MARGINAL TO MODERATE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

...UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD INTO PARTS OF KS/OK/WRN N TX...
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
OVER MN ATTM...WHERE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED.  THOUGH
STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FOR
ORGANIZED/LOCALLY INTENSE STORMS.  THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WHILE SHIFTING EWD INTO WI AND
WRN UPPER MI...AS STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED IN A QUASI-LINEAR FASHION.
 

FURTHER S ALONG FRONT...WEAKER WIND FIELD EXISTS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG FRONT WITHIN
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK AND VICINITY...AS LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
TIME HOWEVER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NJ/ERN PA...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION WHERE
AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.  THOUGH A STRONGER CELL OR TWO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL HAIL...OVERALL CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE
LOW.

...TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
DIURNAL/PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION...BENEATH UPPER HIGH WHERE WEAK
FLOW BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS.  THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH STRONGER STORMS...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...S FL...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S FL NEAR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
THIS AFTERNOON...IN AIRMASS FEATURING MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK
SHEAR. THOUGH A FEW PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THIS EVENING...OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED/TRANSIENT.

..GOSS.. 05/29/2006