[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281629
SWODY1
SPC AC 281628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND
TX...

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS
UT.  THIS FEATURE WILL SURGE INTO CO/WY THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE IN WARM SECTOR OF
SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM CO INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE
WARM SECTOR.  THIS WILL FOCUS GREATEST THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH/WEST OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...AND IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WHERE STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING WILL AID CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

...NORTHERN ND/MN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS MORNING IN LOW/MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN ND AND NORTHERN MN...INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL ND INTO MN WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. 
INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION OVER THIS REGION WILL LIMIT AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS.  HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
NEAR 90F WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG.  LOW AND MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG...BUT SOME VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES MAY PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WY/NEB/SD/ND/MN...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN WY
AND WESTERN SD/NEB...RESULTING IN NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING.  THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION...WEST OF PRIMARY MOISTURE
GRADIENT.  THESE HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH RICHER MOISTURE
PLUME BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN SD/NEB...WHERE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ND AND WESTERN MN OVERNIGHT.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

...WEST TX/OK...
ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG
THE DIFFUSE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX AND WESTERN OK.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS...ALTHOUGH
DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER FORECAST SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAN YESTERDAY. 
HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREAT.

...SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA...
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE
MIDDLE TX GULF COAST.  THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT ALONG COAST. 
HIGH CAPE VALUES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT PULSE-TYPE
SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

...GA/FL...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN AL ALONG THE FL PENINSULA
TODAY. AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70F AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH PULSE-TYPE STORMS MOST
LIKELY.  HOWEVER...SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND REMNANT WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET-MICROBURSTS
AND HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.

..HART/LEVIT.. 05/28/2006