[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250045
SWODY1
SPC AC 250044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
FROM SRN WI INTO IL/IN AND MO....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ESEWD FROM W CENTRAL MN
INTO SWRN WI THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. OCCLUDED LOW OVER W CENTRAL
MN HAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD INTO SWRN WI...THEN SWD AND
SWWD THRU NWRN MO INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.  CURRENT STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS LAID OUT SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
ACROSS WRN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA...AND ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO
CENTRAL MO.

...PARTS OF WI/IL/INDIANA/MO...

MUCH OF THE INTENSE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING SWD WITHIN THE LINE
MAINLY GOING FOR THE BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOURCE.  THE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NRN INDIANA TOWARDS OH IS WEAKENING AS IT
PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND INTO MOISTURE
STARVED AIR WITH OH HAVING DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 30S/LOWER 40S.
THUS...PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH LINE OF ACTIVITY MOVING EWD INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
SERN WI FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO UNTIL IT HITS LAKE BREEZE THAT
EXTENDS FROM GRB SWD TO JUST W OF MKE AREA.  AS STORMS WEAKEN ACROSS
ERN WI...THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS COLLAPSE ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

FARTHER SOUTH...MAIN BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
S CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO S CENTRAL MO.  AIR MASS HERE REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG.  COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS EWD/SEWD ACROSS REGION AND STORMS COULD BUILD BACK
TOWARDS THE SW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL BOW ECHOES
ARE ALONG THIS LINE...THUS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT.  LOOKS LIKE THE TORNADO THREAT IS DECREASING AS LINE
MOVES AWAY FROM MAIN BAND OF MID LEVEL WINDS /45-55 KT/ AND THUS
DECREASING SHEAR.

...PARTS OF W TX...

STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF
SURFACE DRYLINE FROM SWRN OK INTO THE TX BIG BEND.  STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING HAS PUSHED MLCAPES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME HAIL...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/25/2006