[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231951
SWODY1
SPC AC 231949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW OVER NWRN
SD/SWRN ND/SERN MT.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING EWD ALONG
THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 997
LOW OVER THE MT/ND BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SEWD/SWD
ACROSS WRN NEB AND NWRN KS INTO NERN NM.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID
60S AND MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS MOVING EWD WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
40 KTS FROM NWRN OK NWD INTO SERN SD.  ALSO...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE WLY AT AROUND 50 KTS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
ACROSS ERN NEB INTO SERN SD.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA WHERE SHEAR BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS.  THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH STRONG FRONTAL PUSH EWD
ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE WRN PARTS OF THE MOIST AXIS.  AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES EWD
OVER AREA WITH MLCAPES FORECAST TO 2000 J/KG.  THUS...LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SEWD/SWD THROUGH N CENTRAL SD/ERN
NEB INTO CENTRAL KS BY MID EVENING WITH A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF IT.  LOW LEVEL JET IS PROJECTED TO
INCREASE TO 50 KT ALONG THE NEB/IA BORDER.  MODELS SHOW THAT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DECREASES FROM 40-50 KT TO 30-40 KT OVERNIGHT.  THUS...
MCS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER TONIGHT ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO NWRN
MO WITH MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2006