[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161228
SWODY1
SPC AC 161227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...

...FL...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY...ALTHOUGH
PRIMARY UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND.  MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FL PENINSULA. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT FL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
 LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY...MAINTAINING VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.  THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION INVOLVES THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. 
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED PRECIP WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING...WITH POCKETS OF AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. 
ISOLATED STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS
AND HAIL.

...MS/TN VALLEY...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS IL/MO.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TN AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL HELP DESTABILIZE AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 50F.  AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000
J/KG WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN STRONGER CELLS.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 05/16/2006