[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151248
SWODY1
SPC AC 151245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL
PENINSULA...

...EASTERN FL PENINSULA...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA/NORTH FL AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  AIR MASS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG.  DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD LIMIT INLAND PROGRESS OF EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

...AZ/NM...
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF NORTHERN MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS ALONG THE
ROCKIES INTO EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM.  SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT IN THIS REGION
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR...ISOLATED STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN
THIS REGION TODAY.

...EASTERN NC...
MORNING CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN NC WILL LIKELY ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
OVER EASTERN NC...MOVING OFFSHORE BEFORE 00Z.  THIS REGION WILL BE
BENEATH 70 KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX...WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUSTAINED
STORM IN THIS REGION TODAY.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006