[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120031
SWODY1
SPC AC 120029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NC THROUGH EARN PARTS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC AREA...

...ERN NC THROUGH ERN VA...MD AND SERN PA...

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN GA NWD THROUGH
CNTRL NC TO A SURFACE LOW IN N CNTRL VA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDS
NWWD AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH PA AND NWWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES. THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS EXTENDS FROM NERN
NC THROUGH ERN VA...N CNTRL MD AND INTO SERN PA. A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL
JET EXISTS OVER ERN VA INTO ERN PA WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND.
THREATS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO THE MID EVENING FROM EXTREME ERN VA INTO MD AND
POSSIBLY DEL AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND AS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD INTO
THE NERN STATES AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR. LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
THIS REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 05/12/2006