[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 092008
SWODY1
SPC AC 092006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
ACROSS OK/TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH...

...TN/MS/AL...
ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM SWRN KY TO NRN MS CONTINUES EAST TOWARD
MIDDLE TN AND TRAILS SWWD OVER NRN MS. AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE LINE HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT STORM INTENSITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE BUT STORM MOTION WAS ONLY ABOUT
25-30KT. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
BEFORE STORMS ENCOUNTER GREATER STABILITY SITUATED OVER ERN TN.

FARTHER SOUTH...BAND OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS PERSISTS WITHIN
SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM SRN MS TO ERN AL. THIS
ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE
DEVELOPING EWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SUFFICIENT SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXIST IN THIS REGION FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST INTO DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN AL THIS EVENING.

...ERN OK/AR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
SUBSTANTIAL CAP/INHIBITION PERSISTS FROM TX NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS AND RAOB FROM DFW.
EXPECT THAT THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COUPLED WITH LACK OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT OVER THE REGION...MAY DELAY ONSET OF
SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR TRIPLE-POINT LOW AND
DRYLINE...EWD ALONG DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN OK INTO
SWRN/SCNTRL AR. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SUFFICIENTLY
NEAR THESE FEATURES TO FOSTER AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FROM SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA APPEARS NEAR THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT OVER
ERN OK/SCNTRL AR THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR WEAK FRACTURED COLD FRONT OVER SWRN MO/NWRN
AR. MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT EXISTS SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE WHERE STRONG CAPPING SHOULD PERSIST.

ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL OCCUR WITHIN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL BETWEEN FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW NORTH AND SOUTH...SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL TURNING NEAR THE BOUNDARIES...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STRETCHING DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY...SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELL TRACKING NEAR/ALONG
OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT FEATURE FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR THIS EVENING.

STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
ERN OK AND AR THROUGH LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO
THESE AREAS STRENGTHENS. WIND/HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD SPREAD GENERALLY EWD/SEWD ACROSS AR...AND PERHAPS INTO NRN LA
AND NRN MS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO OK TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR AND LATEST RUC FIELDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO THE NERN NM/SERN CO HIGH PLAINS...WILL ENHANCE HIGH PLAINS
MCS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
EWD/SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE ERN TX
PNHDL EAST ACROSS WRN OK TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND DEEP LOW LEVEL ELY INFLOW TO THE NORTH OF RED RIVER
TRIPLE-POINT LOW...SHOULD SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. OVERALL
PATTERN APPEARS TO SUGGEST A SEVERE MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
SPREADING EAST INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 05/09/2006