[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081633
SWODY1
SPC AC 081632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL TX....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...CENTRAL KS TO ERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM ERN NEB TO CENTRAL KS...S OF A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW
INVOF NE NEB.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...ABOVE
A WARMING AND GRADUALLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
ERN NEB TO LOWER 60S IN KS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM SE NEB INTO CENTRAL KS...AS A SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSES EWD OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.  VERTICAL SHEAR/
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VECTOR/BOUNDARY ORIENTATIONS APPEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION.  LATER
IN THE EVENING...CONVECTION MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S
AND MOVE ESEWD TOWARD WRN MO AND N/NE OK.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SUPERCELLS...WHILE WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN
THREATS BY TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF ANY CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS.

...GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN LA
EWD TO N FL/EXTREME S GA.  MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...STORMS WITH
SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MODEST /6.5 C/KM/ AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK...AND BOTH OF THESE FACTORS MAY
TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.  ISOLATED/MARGINAL
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

...TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS TX.  THE OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
IS NOW BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM N CENTRAL INTO E CENTRAL TX...AND THIS
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW IS MASKING THE LOCATION OF THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS TX.  MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS /AS WELL AS SHORT TERM
MODEL FORECASTS/ SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW...AND PERHAPS OVER CENTRAL TX NEAR THE
OUTFLOW/DRYLINE MERGER AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  IF STORMS DO
FORM...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 05/08/2006