[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081259
SWODY1
SPC AC 081257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO NRN
FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...LA EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/NRN FL...
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN GA/NRN FL WWD INTO SERN TX THIS
MORNING.  SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WERE OBSERVED
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE GULF COAST.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG WLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO NRN FL...WITH H5 WINDS FROM 40-50 KT. 
THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST WITH LESSER INSTABILITY FORECAST INTO NRN FL.  DESPITE
ILL-DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISMS ALOFT ON MORNING WV IMAGERY...
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE FRONT AND SEA-BREEZES SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES AS
ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY BOTH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. 
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS...THOUGH FORECAST STORM MOTIONS ALONG STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR CAN BE
MAXIMIZED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

...CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO WRN LA...
STRONG HEATING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL TX TODAY AND
ALLOW DRY LINE TO MIX WELL EWD...POSSIBLY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
LATE IN THE DAY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE AND
PERSISTENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS CAP WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR GIVEN
UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD
TODAY...WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG BY 21Z.  IN ADDITION...
45+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. 

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF NEXT IN A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES. 
THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MODEST...50+ F SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. 
EXPECT SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES AND SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED/INTENSE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL KS WHERE MLCAPE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE GREATER.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SUB-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED A
BIT BY RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
SURFACE LOW AND MODEST SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FOR INCLUSION OF TORNADO PROBABILITIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  ACTIVITY OVER SERN NEB/KS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
MCS/S AND SHIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LLJ
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/NERN OK WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 05/08/2006