[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070602
SWODY1
SPC AC 070600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH -- EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES -- MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...W-E FRONT IS RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  A WEAK LOW SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVER NRN AL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE FURTHER S
A LEE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...THE PLAINS...
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING INVERSION IS INITIALLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...LIMITED MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION /1000
TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ TO OCCUR.  AS UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRONT/TROUGH MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON -- FROM ND SWD INTO
NERN NM/THE TX PANHANDLE.

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK FROM KS
NWD...BUT SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH
STRONGER STORMS.  WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS -- AS MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE -- AND THUS A RELATIVELY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER -- SHOULD OCCUR OVER THIS REGION.
FURTHER S INTO TX...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE BOTH FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER...BUT MORE PERSISTENT SHORT-WAVE RIDGING/LOW-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE WITH SWD EXTENT.

OVERNIGHT...40 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL OK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE MCS TO EVOLVE AND
MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX.  THOUGH LOSS OF HEATING/DECREASING
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE
THREAT...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OCCUR.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THE ONGOING/PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.  ADDITIONALLY...VEERED/WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF FRONT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY.

NONETHELESS...FAIRLY STRONG /AROUND 50 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST ALONG SRN FRINGE OF TROUGH...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE SERN CONUS -- MAINLY FOR
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN POCKETS OF LOCALLY
GREATER INSTABILITY.

..GOSS.. 05/07/2006