[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061634
SWODY1
SPC AC 061632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND S TX....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN
LA....

...TX/LA AREA...
THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS...WITH A PROBABLE EMBEDDED
MCV...ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS SW LA.  E OF THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION...AN E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS SE
LA INTO THE EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT
SLOWLY NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE LA MCS...WHICH WILL ALLOW A VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SRN LA. 
WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV.  EXPECT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO PERSIST WITH LINE SEGMENTS AND
POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLS E OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.  THE MORE
PRONOUNCED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.  

...CENTRAL/S TX AREA...
OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS OVER LA/NW GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD TO S TX
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND WAA ABOVE THE
COLD POOL COULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE MIDDLE TX COAST.  THE MCS HAS
STABILIZED MUCH OF E/SE TX...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME E/SE TX. 
FARTHER W...SOME LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WHERE THE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE MCS HAS CLEARED.  THE
MORE PROBABLE AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL TX ALONG THE SE MOVING COLD FRONT /NEAR THE SRN
FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM W TX/...AND ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP S TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE
LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME A SUBSTANTIAL CAP.  VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN BOTH
AREAS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 05/06/2006