[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051629
SWODY1
SPC AC 051628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SW
TX....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN NM TO SRN LA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF
GA/SC/NC....

...SW/CENTRAL TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY MAF TO ACT
AS OF MID MORNING...WITH A SEPARATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FARTHER S ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST.  LOW-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS ARE SPREADING NWWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD SW
TX /S OF THE FRONT/...WHILE A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
EWD FROM SRN AZ TO SRN NM.  MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER
W TX IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE CLOUD
BREAKS S OF THE FRONT ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  

MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS...AND SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS...SUGGEST
THE LIKELIHOOD OF 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW INTO CENTRAL TX.  ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AND
BULK SHEAR OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND AOA 50 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  EXPECT
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON INVOF THE
SURFACE FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM CNM-MAF-SJT...WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING EWD/ESEWD INTO CENTRAL TX THIS
EVENING.  THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE
SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/SHEAR ARE MAXIMIZED FOR STORMS MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY.  LATER THIS EVENING...CONVECTION MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE
OR MORE MCS/S...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN LA AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS S CENTRAL/SE LA.  MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

...GA/SC AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
AN MCV OVER NRN AL WILL MOVE EWD OVER GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SEWD ACROSS THIS SAME REGION.  THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS GA/SC...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BELT
OF 30-40 KT FLOW S OF THE AL MCV MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING
GUSTS WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON.  A MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006