[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 310547
SWODY1
SPC AC 310546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NERN
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DEFINED MS VALLEY TROUGH
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE
DAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT WITH TWO CONVECTIVE EPISODES POSSIBLE. LATE
THIS EVENING MULTIPLE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINES HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS
IA/MO INTO IL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER THE OH VALLEY WHERE LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE
GRADUAL WEAKENING.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...A NARROW AXIS
OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN IL
INTO SERN LOWER MI.  ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATLY
REDUCED...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  IF SO...ISOLATED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.

FARTHER SOUTH...SUSTAINED MOISTENING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF SFC
FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY1 FRIDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS FROM SRN AR INTO MIDDLE TN.  IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD...ORGANIZED BANDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION ATOP SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT
MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN OK.  IF
THIS EVOLVES...SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
LLJ MAY NOT STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT.  OTHERWISE...STRONG HEATING ALONG WIND SHIFT ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY AID WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING.  CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK
TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW/GRAMS.. 03/31/2006