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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260528
SWODY1
SPC AC 260526

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..sYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FEATURE A STRONG TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SFC...LOW/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE CNTRL HI PLAINS EARLY IN THE PD
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MON AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CORN BELT.  

...CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES...
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH PEAK HEATING SUNDAY.  THOUGH
MSTR WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AMIDST THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW SHORT-LIVED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CO NWD INTO WY.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A NARROW RIBBON OF MODIFIED GULF MSTR NWD
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION/ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER DARK ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN KS...NRN OK NEWD INTO MO.

FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE IN THE
H85-H7 LAYER AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS STRONGER ASCENT SPREADS EWD. 
PARCELS SHOULD REACH THEIR LFC ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS AND NRN OK LATE
SUNDAY EVE...WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO NRN/WRN MO BY 12Z MON
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 50-KT LLJ.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL OWING TO MEAGER MSTR RETURN/ELEVATED BUOYANCY.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 03/26/2006