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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241940
SWODY1
SPC AC 241939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2006

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WESTERN STATES...
SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE READILY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING
THROUGH A BROAD MID/UPPER CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. 
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE...BUT SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
WASHINGTON/OREGON.  WARMING ALOFT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN OREGON IN WAKE OF IMPULSE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  LATTER FEATURE IS STILL WELL WEST OF
COAST AREAS...BUT STRONG FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY.

WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WHERE MID-LEVELS
REMAIN COLD.  WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING... DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE WEST OF THE CASCADES...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/OROGRAPHY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING...BUT WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM  NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER DARK... BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD APPROACH
SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY.

...EASTERN STATES...
A COLD SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AS A COLD CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THIS IS
OCCURRING ALONG A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY WEAK SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  DESPITE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF
CONVECTION...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXED PHASE LAYER IS
RATHER LOW TO THE GROUND...AND IN CAPE BEARING LAYER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 03/24/2006