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[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221928
SWODY1
SPC AC 221926

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CST WED MAR 22 2006

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES...ASSOCIATED WITH A
POLAR JET STREAK TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS TREND LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  BUT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHEARING/EASTWARD
ACCELERATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
OROGRAPHY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BENEATH COLD CORE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.  WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
POSSIBLE...BUT THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...DOWNSTREAM OF POLAR STREAM IMPULSE...IS
SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS. CAPE BASED IN MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 MB...THROUGH FAVORABLE
MIXED PHASE LAYER...HAS SUPPORTED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
MAY DEVELOP WITH FORCING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THEREAFTER...AS EASTWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUES INTO EASTERN GULF
COASTAL AREAS...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...WELL ABOVE THE
FREEZING LEVEL.  THUS...WHILE LIGHT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY
PERSIST...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH.

OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR/EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WELL
ABOVE LEADING EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION NOSING THROUGH
WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS.

...SOUTH FLORIDA...
WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AND MOISTENING IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...IN THE WAKE OF A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE.  THIS MAY WEAKEN
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS MOIST NEAR
FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
DESTABILIZATION.  ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

..KERR.. 03/22/2006